Author Topic: A fun way to keep track...  (Read 991 times)

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Offline MadScientist267

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A fun way to keep track...
« on: April 27, 2013, 03:04:16 PM »
 I've been toying with the idea of making a weather forecast site that's geared specifically at RE...

There's a ton of goodies to be resolved in doing so, but in the mean time, a super simple form of such a thing can take place right here.

Each day, I'll predict then report. What they say will happen, vs what I say will happen, and then what actually happened.  There's 3 sides to every story after all, right?

This will comprise a "solar forecast" only, not temps, humidity, wind chill, or hurricanes. It only applies to a radius of maybe 50 miles from Portsmouth VA, and isn't supposed to be taken as the authority for weather in the area. Anyone that might be in the area, feel free to join in on the fun. That doesn't exclude anyone from anywhere else, but what better entertainment than comparing notes in your own backyard? :)

I might win this, I might lose. For me, its more about the game. Can an "uneducated" van-dweller out-forecast the degree-ridden walls of a meteorologist?

We will see.

I'll start by saying that I lost today. Seemed certain there would be plenty of cloud cover and some rain at some point... I was wrong.  Yesterday's could have been guessed by a blind chimp in a jesters suit, so that didn't really count, and the day before that, they called for cloudy/rain, I disagreed and we got sun. Let's call it even and start from there, see where this ends up, shall we? ;D

Tomorrow:

What they say -  Paraphrased, "Sunny giving way to overcast as the day progresses".

 What I say - "Cloudy with a chance of rain early on, giving way to clearing skies"

Clearly, we both can't be right. Stay tuned.

Current Score:
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Them - 0
Me - 0
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Steve
Wanted: Schrödinger's cat, dead and alive.

Offline MadScientist267

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Re: A fun way to keep track...
« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2013, 07:22:44 PM »
 Well, lost that one...

Did pretty much what they said it would...

The only thing I did call was precipitation, but it was so light and lasted all of 5 or 10 minutes, I can't really call it a win. Noted for the record only. :D

Tomorrow:

What they say -  Paraphrased, "Light rain, most of the day, 0.75 in".

 What I say - "Pretty much the same, although I think there will be more than just 3/4 of an inch. But since I don't have a rain gauge... Just going to call the full overcast all day."

Stay tuned.

Current Score:
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Them - 1
Me - 0
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Steve
Wanted: Schrödinger's cat, dead and alive.

Offline MadScientist267

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Re: A fun way to keep track...
« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2013, 07:51:21 PM »
One "rain gauge"...

ila_rendered

Thanks Ross  :P

Steve
Wanted: Schrödinger's cat, dead and alive.

Offline MadScientist267

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Re: A fun way to keep track...
« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2013, 04:54:52 PM »
Win-win on that.

Collected right at an inch of rain, but in fairness, I actually started before "today" technically began. It's possible there was as much as 1/4" before midnight I suppose, and given that my accuracy isn't likely all that great, I'll say it was an accurate forecast to call it 3/4.

Tomorrow:

What they say -  Paraphrased, "Light rain turning overcast tonight,   then mostly cloudy/overcast earlier in the day tomorrow, followed by drizzle (0.1 in) from mid afternoon on".

What I say - "Chance of rain tonight, light cloud cover tomorrow (high haze), mostly sunny."

Stay tuned.

Current Score:
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Them - 2
Me - 1
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Steve
Wanted: Schrödinger's cat, dead and alive.

Offline WooferHound

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Re: A fun way to keep track...
« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2013, 04:11:28 PM »
What are you basing your forecasts on.
Are you just repredicting what the weather guys are saying?

And about that Rain Gauge . . .
It's shaped like a funnel, if you really got 1 inch of rain it would show up as 3 inches in the bottom of that bottle. You should use a bottle that is the same diameter all the way to the bottom. Like my shampoo bottle.
ila_rendered
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Offline MadScientist267

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Re: A fun way to keep track...
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2013, 01:14:32 PM »
 This one is on pause ATM.

But, to answer your question Woof:

Visible Satellite
IR Satellite
Water Vapor Satellite

I was using dew points also for the above, but the dew map was not available on a time lapse loop, as the others were, and it made it difficult to incorporate.

I make my assessment, write it down, then go back and get the "official" forecast and paraphrase it, including only the pertinent parts to this thread.

I did much better before I got over-complex with the sources and did more than casually make note of what was to come.  I'll resume soon with hopefully better accuracy... Right now I've got a few things to deal with that have come up and need my attention.

Will be back on the air shortly. ;)

Steve
Wanted: Schrödinger's cat, dead and alive.