Author Topic: I'm going to become a meteorologist...  (Read 1445 times)

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Offline MadScientist267

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I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« on: August 19, 2012, 02:51:33 AM »
Or something like that...

I have one good standing reason: What other job could anyone have where said individual could be completely and totally wrong in what they do 95% of the time, and nobody questions it? At least on an "official" level?

Google, The weather channel, blah blah, yada yada. All wrong for at LEAST the last two months. In my location anyway. When I was in West Point, I could do a better job of predicting the next 24 hours or so, and I have no training or other sanctioned education on the subject whosoever. A quick look at the radar and it's recent history, combined with a little experience from observing past results from similar conditions, and I could hit it pretty much on the head. I learned to just flat out ignore the "expert" forecast and determine for myself. Worked a lot better for determining what I could expect from the panels and such the following day.

But here in the van, I need decent accuracy, its not a matter of want really anymore. Every day, there is a thunderstorm coming, and it never happens. It has been so dead wrong that one day the 24 hour prediction called for 60% chance of precipitation, with higher than normal winds (15-20 MPH rather than the typical 5 or so), and lightning/thunder. The following day, not only was there no storm whatsoever, but less than average winds, mostly sunny, then completely clear that night.

This is a typical pattern. Its almost as if a computer is in complete control of the forecast, with no human interaction to correct the miscalculations, and the default (until something says otherwise) is that a thunderstorm is coming. Typically the air currents carry any activity from the southwest toward the northeast. This being said, I would go to the radar, and there would be nothing for 3 states west of here, yet thunderstorms are coming, and guess what? No rocket science here, the next day, sky is relatively clear. Duh.

So how is this? Am I spot on? Anybody else getting these whack predictions? Seems 10 or 20 years ago you could HALF believe what you heard from the pros (I'm not naive enough to think that there will ever be a 100% accuracy). Its a hell of a lot lower than that now, and there's much more data, technology, and understanding on the subject, but the quality gets less and less?

I don't get it.

Steve
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Offline oztules

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Re: I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2012, 03:19:51 AM »
Thats spot on Steve. They have less idea the more money we throw at them.

Seems they have to use the models.... forget about real observations, just models.

They must never look out the window, never look at any data themselves, just feed it into the computers and stand back and have a tea break.

The fellows in the second world war did much better with much less.

we have not progressed, nor will we until we redress the reliance on pathetic models, and start doing some seat of the pants predicting from the current data available.

Over here I ask the fisherman about the weather. They look at a isobar map, and get it pretty right most times, and as their livellhood and safety depend on getting it right, they don't seem to use the normal nonsense we other folks get subjected too.




The experts always seem to predict rain that never turns up from the west when they think it should, never predict the easterly rains, which always confound them..... and hedge nearly every day with percentage chance of rain.... If they threw a coin they may get it right half the time I guess.

They get the wind wrong a lot of the time (even direction), and have no idea about overnight lows.

If I had believed them, we would have never dropped below about 6C..... but been having plenty of frosts down to -3C. They fail to understand, that saying 5-7 most days, just does not have any relevance to observed temperatures. Their day temps are just a joke.

Feel for you buddy.

If you look at the isobars, and the radar, use local knowledge, then you will probably out predict them 90% of the time.

....... and they have 150 years of data from here to fill out their local knowledge base to feed the ever hungry models.


It is truly pathetic...... them and economists and football commentators.(footy EXPERTS always say why some side will win, while other experts say why they wont..... expert?????)



................oztules
Flinders Island...... Australia

Offline Bryan1

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Re: I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2012, 05:06:16 AM »
One thinks Dr. Oz.Tules has hit the nail on the head........ it was said the collywobbles would walk all over North but happened it went the other way, the forecast the otherday was upto 10mm in the hills and we got 44 mm, it is said these days the ol' Russia and new Russia has a better lifestyle than the western world but the media put it around the other way. Now just look at that Ozzie stuck in in an embassy in pommieland and his only way out is in a box. Now so much for western justice if it doesn't suit and well what was said on todays news forget freedom as just like the weather it just gets worse than any predication.... 

Offline Wolvenar

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Re: I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2012, 12:32:19 PM »
I look at the radar, and maps of pressure fronts. If the pressure fronts ( or temp map many times) have a drastic differential front, and its moving my way, I tend to plan for bad weather.
At least plan for plenty of wind when that front gets here.

But, this is Minnesota..
That's about as good as it gets for prediction.
We have had 90 degree days turn into 50's in a few hours recently.
Trying to make power from alternative energy any which way I can.
Just to abuse what I make. (and run this site)

Offline Dave B.

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Re: I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2012, 02:42:43 PM »
It's job security. Predicting a chance of rain or a chance of snow everyday how can you fire a meteorologist who is always 100% correct and hypes the prediction as a chance of bad weather, never the chance of sun ? Drama sells, these guys and gals are good !   Dave B.

Offline WooferHound

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Re: I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2012, 03:23:19 PM »
The weather guys around here are 90% correct, 40% of the time . . .

Yesterday they were predicting a 20% chance of rain for today
this morning they were saying it was a 70% chance of rain today
at 10:AM it was back down to 20% chance for the rest of the day
looking at the regional radar I would say it's a 0% chance
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Offline Dave B.

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Re: I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2012, 04:27:19 PM »
Every day there is a chance. If it doesn't rain or snow thay are 100 % correct, if it does they are 100 % correct. Great job when you can do no wrong, wanna be politicians I'd say.  Dave B.

Offline MadScientist267

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Re: I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2012, 05:06:11 PM »
See why I say its the perfect job?

I guess it really is in how you word it. But if its wrong all the time, what's the point of it being there at all? OTHER than because the world needs just another one of those "made up jobs"?  ::)

Steve
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Offline WooferHound

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Re: I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2012, 09:15:31 PM »
Have you noticed that they will Rarely forecast a 10% chance of rain
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Offline MadScientist267

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Re: I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2012, 12:45:20 AM »
Yeah. Seems to always be 0, 30, or 60... :-\

Steve
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Offline Dave B.

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Re: I'm going to become a meteorologist...
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2012, 02:21:55 AM »
It doesn't matter what the forecasted percent chance is. If they forecast there is a chance of rain (no matter the percent) they are always 100% correct. There is a chance everyday. If it rains they are correct if it doesn't they are correct. They would be just as accurate (but it wouldn't cause such a stir) to forecast as a percent chance of sun, there is a chance of that everyday also. How about 90% chance of sun instead of 10% chance of rain ? Nah, that doesn't rattle anyone's cage or advertise the particular channel discussed around the water cooler like the bad news weather report. Just more of the circus TV, I cut the puke line and tossed the dish here over 15 years ago. So far saving over $20,000.00 because of it, priceless.  Dave B.